Dubai’s population has reached 4.73M, surpassing pre-Iran war figures from February, despite a net loss of 61,000 residents in March following the start of the Iran war at the end of February.
Yet construction, specifically new real estate launches, continue to lag YoY as construction companies finish existing launches while limiting new launches.
Demographic Rebound
The population rebounded from April to June, exceeding the numbers recorded before the conflict by 20,000 residents last month.
The Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment does not differentiate in its data between expatriates—who constitute approximately 80% of the population—and local citizens.
Population metrics are crucial for the emirate’s real estate sector, which relies on such figures to predict market demand.
Modest Population Rebound YoY
However, projections indicate that the national population is expected to increase by 2% this year, a notable reduction compared to previous rates, according to real estate consultancy Savills. This reduced growth could lead to a more stable pace in residential demand.
The impact of the Iranian conflict has prompted local developers to concentrate on completing existing projects instead of launching new ones.
In Q2, Dubai recorded its highest number of property completions in five years, delivering approximately 27,000 units: a substantial increase from around 7,000 in the first quarter yet completions largely pertain to developments initiated three years prior.
Stay Up to Date with the Latest Updates at Finance ME
Sarah Al-Shawwaf: Vision 2030 Has Unlocked the Potential of Saudi Women
World Bank Projects 2.4% Growth for Oman in FY26
EDGE’s Rodrigo Torres on Risk, Sovereignty and Defence Finance in a Multipolar World
