The price of cocoa has fallen from its historic highs reached earlier in the year, following an increase in supply resulting from the main season harvest in the Ivory Coast.
However, these price reductions might come too late to affect the cost of holiday chocolate shopping. While Halloween and Christmas chocolate shopping is expected to reflect these higher prices, experts expect costs to lower come Easter 2025.
In May, New York cocoa prices soared by more than 200%, including a notable surge of 97% in 2024 alone. Later in the year, cocoa prices reached an all-time high of $12,000 per tonne. Looking at the London futures market, the price of the December contract rose from £2,741 per tonne on October 2023 to £8,218 per tonne on April 2024.
The price climb eased over the summer and early autumn, with cocoa prices falling to a March low of $6,750 on October 25, as a result of ease in supply. The number of bean arrivals to ports continued to exceed last year’s, highlighting an improved supply outlook following a period of beneficial rain.
“However, the price drop has probably arrived too late to lower prices for the high-demand season ahead of Christmas and New Year,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy at Saxo Bank. Although he stressed the lowered prices are likely to be felt when shopping for next year’s Easter chocolates, Hansen predicted that “the chocolate we consume this Christmas will likely be pricier than last year”.
Cocoa futures between January and November 2024
The one-year delay in implementing the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is also expected to ease supply concerns for EU importers, who were facing increased expenses from verifying deforestation-free supply. The delay also reduces the short-term risk of cutting off supply from non-compliant regions. Nonetheless, cocoa production is still expected to take longer to return to its 2023 average.
“Despite the prospect of an improved harvest, the shortfall from the previous two harvests will take time to rectify, if at all possible,” Hansen added.
The cocoa futures market seems to support this view, pricing cocoa next December at around $5,200 per tonne. This is 23% below the current price but still more than double the long-term average.
