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Alexander Joshi: The Retail Investor is Becoming a Market Force

Barclays Private Bank’s Head of Behavioural Finance, Alexander Joshi, explores the behavioural forces shaping retail participation in UAE and foreign equity markets.

Barclays
Barclays

Retail investors are no longer a sideshow in global markets.

Approximately one‑fifth of US equity trading is now attributed to retail investors, with the latest growth coming partly at the expense of institutional activity. As UAE investors allocate increasing amounts of capital to global markets, retail behaviour abroad can influence portfolio outcomes at home.

These dynamics are particularly relevant for the UAE.  A young, digitally savvy population, is accelerating the shift toward self‑directed investing, fuelled by trading apps and greater access to global markets.

Today 87% of the UAE retail investors use fintech platforms to manage their finances, with more than a quarter relying on fintech exclusively.

The democratisation of investing has brought significant benefits, from helping individuals build long-term wealth to increasing market participation and liquidity. However, it has also changed how markets behave. Five behavioural trends are becoming increasingly important for investors to understand.

AI and Momentum Investment

Retail portfolios today show a strong bias toward momentum stocks, particularly high‑profile AI‑themed companies where retail investors are overweight to benchmarks. This positioning has boosted returns, particularly since early 2024, but raises vulnerability if leadership rotates or momentum unwinds. 

Valuation risk is m more pronounced, given that popular retail holdings often trade at significant premiums to broader indices. While momentum can persist for longer than many expect, investors should remain aware that crowded positioning can reverse just as quickly.

Passive investing is reinforcing market concentration 

These behavioural dynamics are amplified by the growing dominance of passive investing. Retail investors have increasingly favoured passive funds and ETFs, which absorbed record inflows in 2025. 

As stocks become larger index constituents, they naturally attract greater passive inflows, while weaker performers receive less capital. This feedback loop can reinforce existing trends, narrow market leadership and make markets increasingly sensitive to investor sentiment rather than underlying fundamentals.

Technology is Changing How People Invest

Retail participation has grown due to lower trading costs, commission‑free trading platforms and greater access to global markets. The pandemic accelerated these trends, supported by high liquidity and more time spent online, while policymakers globally are also encouraging participation in financial markets. 

Younger investors are entering markets earlier than generations past. Their investment experiences have largely been shaped by abundant liquidity and strong equity performance., leading many to develop different expectations around risk and return than investors whose formative years were defined by the Global Financial Crisis. 

Modern trading platforms are further influencing behaviour. Gamified features, including rewards, animations and social‑trading prompts, encourage frequent trading and herding. Such features increase turnover and short‑term focus, often without improving outcomes, particularly for less‑experienced investors.

At the market level, these dynamics can create short‑term dislocations and sentiment‑driven moves.

Headlines are Driving Investor Psychology

Recent geopolitical backdrop in the Gulf has also highlighted how quickly investor sentiment can shift during periods of uncertainty. Dramatic headlines can induce and amplify short-term volatility, as well as emotional reactions to it by investors. 

When information arrives continuously, it compresses our sense of time. Short-term developments feel more significant and enduring than they often are. Volatility that would normally be viewed as temporary starts to feel structural, simply because the flow of information never pauses long enough for perspective to settle.

For long-term investors, this can be dangerous. A constant drip of worrying headlines can trigger loss aversion, herding and a fear of missing out, prompting decisions that feel rational in the moment but may conflict with long-term goals. When information flows too rapidly, noise can also be easily mistaken for signal.

Behavioural Discipline

Greater retail participation is likely to increase as mainstream financial markets coverage.

This is not necessarily helpful for successful long‑term investing and greater exposure to emotive or unregulated commentary can exacerbate behavioural biases, impairing decision-making and weighing on returns.

Retail-driven market activity can increase intraday volatility, create pockets of crowded thematic exposure and drive occasional mispricing. For long‑term investors in the UAE, these episodes can be navigated – and sometimes exploited – through disciplined processes.

Diversification, strategic asset allocation and systematic rebalancing remain the most effective tools to manage risk and capture long‑term returns. Periods in which retail‑driven activity pushes prices away from fundamentals can create opportunities for active managers with strong research capabilities. 

As retail participation grows and market narratives move faster, understanding investor psychology is becoming increasingly important. In a world increasingly shaped by rapid information cycles and social media, behavioural discipline may prove one of the defining differentiators of long-term investment success.

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