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2026: The Year of Succession as Private Markets Face a $1 Trillion Moment

Zuhair Shamma, the CEO of Morgan Stanley backed Zest Equity: $1T generational wealth transfer is putting GCC private markets, governance and infrastructure under pressure.

2026: The Year of Succession as Private Markets Face a $1 Trillion Moment
2026: The Year of Succession as Private Markets Face a $1 Trillion Moment

Across the GCC, estimates suggest that roughly $1 trillion in family-held wealth will change hands over the coming decade.

A Generational Shift in Gulf Wealth

As 2026 nears, the significance of that transfer is becoming clearer, not simply because of its scale, but because the identity and expectations of those deploying that capital are changing in ways that will reshape portfolio strategy, governance and the mechanics of private investing.

Succession has always been a feature of Gulf wealth, typically anchored in long time horizons and a preference for control. The difference this time is that a larger share of decision-making is moving to stewards who have grown up with digital financial services, constant access to information and the ability to operate across borders with relative ease.

Those experiences tend to translate into a more global approach to portfolio construction and a higher expectation that investment processes should be transparent, efficient and professionally administered.

Over time, this is likely to influence not only where capital is allocated, but also the standards investors expect in how private transactions are executed and governed.

Private Markets Take Centre Stage

This shift is already visible in portfolio construction.

The UBS Global Family Office Report 2025 shows that private markets now account for more than a third of average family office portfolios globally, with allocations continuing to rise among younger principals in particular.

Private equity, venture capital and private credit are increasingly viewed as long-term engines of value creation, offering exposure to growth sectors that are less accessible in public markets, alongside a degree of influence over structures and outcomes that many families prefer.

Rising Activity and Growing Geographic Reach

Transaction data suggests that this change in allocation is already translating into higher activity across the region. Private market investment in the Middle East accelerated through 2025, with nearly $14 billion deployed in the first half of the year alone, approaching the total recorded across all of 2024.

Over the first nine months of the year, M&A activity rose by more than 20 percent, while cross-border transactions accounted for more than half of deal volume, their highest share in five years. Together, these figures point to a market that is not only committing more capital to private assets, but doing so with greater frequency and geographic complexity.

Operational Strain Beneath the Surface

As private market activity scales, however, structural tension becomes more apparent.

While investment appetite has evolved quickly, the operational foundations supporting private market transactions have moved more slowly. This gap is amplified by the composition of deal flow itself.

In the first half of 2025, roughly 96% of disclosed transaction sizes in the region were below $100 million. Individually smaller but higher in volume, these deals (particularly capital formation activities) place increasing strain on transaction processes (onboarding, compliance, documentation and fund-flows) that were designed for a lower-velocity market.

Governance, Risk and the Demand for Transparency

The implications extend beyond efficiency.

Manual onboarding, fragmented workflows and informal document exchange introduce operational risk and place pressure on governance frameworks, particularly as regulatory expectations rise and transactions span multiple jurisdictions.

For next-generation stewards seeking greater transparency and control, the infrastructure beneath private investing becomes as important as the investment thesis itself.

Liquidity Pressures and the Rise of Secondaries

Looking toward 2026, the challenge for the Gulf is therefore less about whether capital will continue to flow into private markets and more about whether the systems supporting those markets can scale without undermining trust and increasing friction. Liquidity dynamics are also beginning to add to that pressure.

As private market holding periods extend, secondary transactions are increasingly viewed as a practical tool for portfolio management, adding further operational and regulatory complexity.

Building the Foundations for the Next Phase

Financial centres across the region appear increasingly aware of this dynamic. Regulatory frameworks governing private market services and capital movement have been expanding, reflecting efforts to strengthen the institutional foundations of private investment.

These steps are incremental rather than transformative, but they signal a recognition that competitiveness will be shaped not only by the availability of capital, but by the quality of the infrastructure through which that capital is deployed and moved.

Infrastructure as a Determinant of Outcomes

As 2026 draws nearer, attention is shifting away from whether private markets will expand and toward what will determine how well they function at scale. In a region facing a one trillion dollar generational transition, the architecture that enables private investing is no longer a secondary consideration.

It is increasingly one of the factors that will shape the outcome for the GCC’s private market ecosystem development.

NOTE: This Article Represents the Perspectives of Zuhair Shamma, the CEO of Morgan Stanley backed Zest Equity.

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