Global business leaders and investors are forecasting a dramatic upswing in the global economy, spurred by the reelection of US President Donald Trump. According to a new study by Teneo, optimism among CEOs and institutional investors has reached unprecedented levels, with many anticipating accelerated growth, a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, and increased investment in the US.
The study, conducted in the weeks following the 2024 election, surveyed more than 300 CEOs of global public companies and 380 institutional investors representing nearly $10 trillion in assets. The findings reveal a significant shift in sentiment, with a majority of respondents pointing to anticipated policy changes under the new administration as a catalyst for economic activity in 2025.
Expectations for economic growth and investment
The survey reports a sharp increase in confidence about the global economy’s direction. Nearly 77% of CEOs and 86% of investors expect improvement in the global economy during the first half of 2025, compared to just 45% of CEOs who shared similar optimism in 2024. This surge in sentiment is attributed to expectations of a business-friendly environment, including tax reforms and deregulation. The US, bolstered by these policy shifts, is seen as the most attractive destination for global investment.
Mergers and acquisitions are set to make a strong comeback, with over 80% of CEOs and investors forecasting heightened activity in 2025. Respondents cited improved access to capital and the policy environment as key drivers for this trend.
The “Trump Effect” on business strategy
The study highlights that the election outcome is already influencing business strategies. Half of the CEOs surveyed reported accelerating investments and hiring plans in response to Trump’s reelection. Meanwhile, 64% of respondents believe that potential adjustments to tariffs, taxes, and regulatory frameworks will benefit their operations. Many expect these changes to strengthen the US dollar and redefine trade dynamics, though some anticipate disruptions in global supply chains.
Geopolitical considerations and risks
While optimism abounds, business leaders remain cautious about geopolitical risks. Most respondents see potential benefits from global election outcomes in 2024, anticipating improved economic stability. However, concerns persist regarding monetary policy shifts, data privacy regulations, environmental mandates and China-related policies. Notably, the role of China in corporate strategy has grown significantly, with 47% of CEOs now viewing it as critical, up from 20% in 2023.
The survey also notes confidence in the private sector’s ability to navigate geopolitical disruptions, including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Shifting priorities in ESG
Corporate attitudes toward environmental, social, and governance (ESG) priorities are evolving. Amid increased politicisation, 91% of CEOs reported recalibrating their ESG strategies, compared to 72% in the previous year. While some are scaling back their initiatives, the majority remain committed to balancing ESG goals with core business objectives. Recruitment and retention of diverse talent continue to be a priority for nearly all respondents, even as new employment regulations loom.
AI and innovation
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is dominating technological strategies, with large corporations prioritising AI while smaller firms diversify into robotics, augmented reality, quantum computing, and cryptocurrency. Investors are pressing for quicker returns on AI projects, with 80% expecting profitability within a year. CEOs, however, appear more patient, with 41% willing to wait one to two years for returns. There is growing consensus that AI strategy should be led by CEOs, though investors are calling for greater board oversight.
The Teneo Vision 2025 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted between November 11 and December 3, 2024, by the firm’s data and insights team. The survey captured perspectives from CEOs of publicly traded companies with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion and institutional investors from diverse sectors, including investment banking, private equity, and venture capital.
As optimism soars, business leaders and investors are preparing to capitalise on the opportunities of a changing economic landscape while remaining vigilant about potential challenges posed by geopolitical and policy developments.
