The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reported a marginal decrease in annual core inflation, which fell to 23.7% in November 2024, down from 24.4% in October 2024. On a monthly basis, core inflation for November 2024 was recorded at 0.4%, a notable drop from 1.3% in October 2024 and 1.0% in November 2023.
Annual urban headline inflation also declined, decreasing to 25.5% in November 2024 from 26.5% in October 2024. This was primarily attributed to a significant drop in core food items and fresh vegetable prices, marking the largest price decrease since July 2022. However, the decline was partially offset by rising non-food prices, which were driven by higher costs of regulated items and services, including fuel, transportation, and tobacco.
The monthly inflation data reflected a mixed picture. Core food prices, especially for poultry and eggs, experienced a significant drop, which contributed to the decrease in inflation. Conversely, prices for services, such as rents, saw an uptick, partially offsetting the overall decline. Urban headline inflation for November 2024 stood at 0.5%, down from 1.1% in October 2024 and 1.3% in November 2023. Seasonal reductions in fresh vegetable prices played a major role in this monthly decline.
In rural areas, annual headline inflation decreased to 24.4% in November 2024 from 26.1% in October 2024. Nationwide headline inflation followed a similar trend, falling to 25.0% in November 2024 from 26.3% in the previous month.
Specific price movements
Price changes for various food and non-food items showed diverse trends. Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decline of 11.8%, which contributed negatively to headline inflation. In contrast, fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3%. Prices for poultry and eggs dropped by 6.3% and 2.3%, respectively, further easing inflation pressures.
Non-food items, however, painted a different picture. Prices for regulated items, including fuel, inland transportation, and tobacco, increased by 3.8%, adding 0.77 percentage points to the monthly headline inflation. Services, particularly in restaurants, cafes, and rents, rose by 1.2%, contributing 0.32 percentage points. Retail items, including clothing, footwear, vehicles, and personal care products, saw a 1.6% price increase, contributing 0.22 percentage points.
The impact of these price changes on core inflation was mixed. While core food items contributed a negative 0.32 percentage points to core inflation, retail items and services added 0.30 percentage points and 0.44 percentage points, respectively.
