The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have confirmed plans to increase oil production by 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in April 2025. This marks the first output hike since 2022, following repeated delays.
The decision was made during a virtual meeting on March 3, 2025, involving eight OPEC+ nations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The group cited “healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook” for proceeding with the gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary adjustments starting April 1, 2025. They emphasised that this increase could be paused or reversed based on market conditions to maintain oil market stability.
The announcement led to a decline in oil prices. Brent crude futures dropped 2% below $72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $68.28 a barrel.
In addition to the production increase, the eight countries reiterated their commitment to fully comply with the additional voluntary production adjustments agreed upon during the 53rd Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on April 3, 2024. They also confirmed their intention to compensate for any overproduced volumes since January 2024, with all compensations to be completed by June 2026.
The countries with overproduced volumes have agreed to front-load their compensation plans, ensuring that more of the overproduced volumes are compensated in the earlier months of the compensation period. They will submit their updated compensation schedules to the OPEC Secretariat by March 17, 2025, which will be posted on the Secretariat’s website.
