OPEC+ is preparing to increase oil production by as much as 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by November, Reuters reported, quoting five sources familiar with the matter. The move comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to enforce quota compliance among members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.
The group had already announced a larger-than-expected supply hike in April for May delivery, catching markets off guard.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, has implemented production cuts amounting to 5 million bpd, or about 5% of global demand, since 2022. While many of these cuts are scheduled to remain through 2026, the group agreed in April to accelerate the phase-out of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts.
In a meeting held on Saturday, OPEC+ confirmed another output increase for June, raising the total for April through June to nearly 1 million bpd. Sources say the group is likely to approve a further 411,000 bpd hike in July and could approve additional monthly increases through October if non-compliance continues.
The phased rollback comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, where he is expected to discuss energy policy, defence deals, and a potential nuclear agreement. Trump has previously urged OPEC+ to increase production to reduce domestic fuel prices, which have come under pressure from inflation and ongoing trade tariffs.
In April, Kazakhstan’s oil output exceeded its quota despite a 3% drop in production. The country’s energy minister publicly stated that national interests precede OPEC+ commitments. Iraq has also faced ongoing challenges in aligning with agreed limits.
Sources said that if compliance does not improve, the full 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts could be reversed by November. The threat of supply increases has contributed to recent declines in crude prices, with Brent falling below $60 a barrel in April.
OPEC, the Saudi government, and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister’s office declined to comment on the planned hikes. Analysts, including UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, warned that expectations of further supply will continue to pressure prices unless compliance is restored.
