OPEC+ confirmed plans to gradually increase oil production starting April 2025 and replaced the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) with new market intelligence firms to monitor compliance with production targets.
The decision comes amid renewed pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices, with Trump attributing elevated prices to Russia’s continued war in Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the OPEC+ ministers had discussed Trump’s request but decided to stick to their plan of phased production increases beginning on April 1.
Under the current schedule, OPEC+ will begin unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts with an initial increase of 138,000 bpd monthly until September 2026.
The group, which has been cutting 5.85 million bpd since 2022, delayed output hikes several times due to weak global demand and rising production outside the bloc. A final decision on the April hike is expected in early March.
As part of the meeting, OPEC+ removed Rystad Energy and the EIA from its list of secondary sources used to monitor output and added Kpler, OilX, and ESAI. An OPEC+ source cited issues with EIA’s communication as the reason for its removal, denying any political motivation.
This change follows OPEC+’s earlier decision in 2022 to drop the International Energy Agency (IEA), a move attributed to Saudi Arabia’s concerns about US influence over oil data.
Rystad Energy acknowledged the change in its engagement, stating, “It is common to engage different market intelligence providers.” The US government did not comment on the removal of the EIA.
Monday’s meeting coincided with rising oil prices following Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, sparking concerns over potential supply disruptions. Prices remain below the $83 per barrel peak reached in January due to ongoing market concerns over US sanctions on Russia.
