Global trade reached an unprecedented $33 trillion in 2024, marking a 3.7% ($1.2 trillion) increase from the previous year, according to the latest Global Trade Update by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This growth was predominantly driven by the services sector, which expanded by 9%, contributing $700 billion—nearly 60% of the total increase. In contrast, trade in goods grew by 2%, adding $500 billion.
Despite this overall growth, momentum decelerated in the latter half of 2024. In the fourth quarter, trade in goods grew by less than 0.5%, and services edged up just 1%. Trade inflation neared zero as prices for traded goods stabilized during this period.
Developing economies outpaced developed nations, with imports and exports rising 4% for the year and 2% in the fourth quarter, driven mainly by East and South Asia. Conversely, developed economies’ trade stagnated, with imports and exports flat for the year and down 2% in the last quarter.
Trade imbalances widened, with the United States’ trade deficit with China reaching -$355 billion, widening by $14 billion in the fourth quarter. The U.S. deficit with the European Union increased by $12 billion to -$241 billion. Meanwhile, China’s strong exports pushed its trade surplus to the highest level since 2022. The EU reversed previous deficits and posted a trade surplus for the year, aided by high energy prices.
Looking ahead, UNCTAD warns of potential disruptions in 2025 due to mounting geoeconomic tensions, protectionist policies, and trade disputes. Falling shipping indexes signal weaker demand for manufactured goods, inputs, and commodities as businesses adjust to increasing uncertainty. The challenge in 2025 is to prevent global fragmentation—where nations form isolated trade blocs—while managing policy shifts without undermining long-term growth.
