OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), citing updated first-quarter data and the expected economic impact of newly announced US tariffs, according to its April 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report.
Demand growth in OECD countries is now projected at 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD regions are expected to account for nearly 1.25 mb/d of the total increase.
For 2026, OPEC has also lowered its forecast slightly, maintaining expected global demand growth at 1.3 mb/d. OECD demand is projected to rise by 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD regions are forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d.
OPEC noted that while the global economy showed steady momentum in early 2025, rising uncertainty tied to trade tensions has led to a downward revision of its global GDP growth outlook. It now expects global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
The demand revision comes as market participants assess the broader impact of new trade restrictions, particularly between the US and its trading partners, on global industrial activity and energy consumption.
