The UAE is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, revised up from 4.4%, according to the central bank’s quarterly economic review.
The hydrocarbon sector is projected to expand by 5.8% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, driven by increased oil production under OPEC+ quotas.
Non-hydrocarbon GDP, which accounted for 77.1% of total GDP in Q1, is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026. Sectors leading that growth include manufacturing, financial services, construction, and real estate.
In the first quarter of 2025, overall economic growth was 3.9% year-on-year, with non-hydrocarbon activity rising 5.3%.
The bank’s report says that higher hydrocarbon output will offset lower oil prices’ effects on government revenues and will create spillover effects boosting investment, government spending, and confidence.
Looking ahead, real GDP is forecast to rise further to 5.3% in 2026.
