The United Arab Emirates’ impending exit from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance is forecast to affect OPEC’s price setting ability in the long-term, citing a HSBC research note issued on Tuesday.
Supply-side discipline and price management are critical for an economic cartel. The UAE’s exit effectively ‘breaks the cartel’ owing to the economy’s role as the fifth largest oil producer in OPEC (2025).
Alternative Pipelines
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, a crucial alternative route that allows oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, has a maximum capacity of approximately 1.8M barrels per day.
Higher Output, Higher Revenues
The UAE will no longer be subject to OPEC production quotas and could gradually increase its output, increasing revenues even if the price of crude falls following any permanent reopening of the Strait.
OPEC quotas stipulate a 3.4M barrels per day production quota for May 2026.
Any increase in supply is expected to occur gradually over a period of 12 to 18 months, consistent with ADNOC’s commitment to aligning output with demand and market conditions.
OPEC Departures
In the long run, HSBC warns that the departure of a key Gulf member could jeopardise OPEC cohesion and credibility, complicating supply management enforcement.
The UAE was the fifth largest crude producer (2025) in OPEC, being the fourth producer to leave the cartel since 2019.
Qatar left the bloc in 2019.
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