The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to remain at 3.3% in 2025 before slowing to just above 3% over the next five years, falling below historical averages. Middle East and North Africa (MENA) growth is expected to rebound to 3.6% in 2025, driven by increased oil production and easing regional conflicts, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai.
“Policymakers have generally succeeded in taming inflation, but not everywhere, with inflation picking up again in some countries,” Georgieva noted. She warned that this could trigger a divergence in interest rates and raise borrowing costs for emerging markets.
Global public debt is projected to hit 100% of global GDP by 2030, with many MENA countries facing debt levels exceeding 70% of GDP. “This poses the risk of them becoming trapped in a low-growth, high-debt scenario,” she said.
Georgieva pointed to key challenges for governments, including job creation, stronger social safety nets, reconstruction, resilience to natural disasters, and economic diversification. She also highlighted the impact of digital innovation, with AI technologies expected to boost the UAE’s GDP significantly by 2030, particularly through increased R&D spending.
Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, stressed that emerging economies and middle-income countries are experiencing uneven growth rates due to financial and geopolitical pressures. He emphasised the importance of IMF support in promoting structural reforms and driving long-term sustainable growth across the region.
