 The UAE’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2024, rising to 5.2% in 2025, according to the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE).
In its quarterly economic review report, the Central Bank forecasted a non-oil GDP growth of 4.7% in both 2024 and 2025 and an oil GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025.
The CBUAE noted that the UAE’s consolidated fiscal balance for the first nine months of 2023 posted a surplus of Dh61 billion, equivalent to 4.4% of GDP. Total revenues reached around Dh370 billion, while expenditures amounted to about Dh309 billion.
The CBUAE report also anticipated that the recent introduction of a federal corporate tax would strengthen government finances, contributing to the diversification of revenue sources away from the oil sector.
The report also highlighted the continued strength of the non-oil private sector, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reaching 56.6 in January 2024, driven by ongoing business confidence in economic outlooks. The PMI in Dubai reached 56.6 last January.
Moreover, positive readings regarding employment and wage growth indicate strong future consumption. The number of employees in the private sector increased by 3.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, while the 3-month moving average of wages increased by 7.4% compared to the same period in 2022, enhancing individuals’ purchasing power.
Last December, the CBUAE revised its GDP growth forecast for the UAE in 2024 to 5.7%, up from the previous projection of 4.3%.
