The World Bank has revised its 2025 GDP forecast for the UAE to 4.6%, up from 4.0% in January, citing higher contributions from non-oil sectors and the gradual resumption of oil production under eased OPEC+ constraints.
In its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, the Bank also lifted the UAE’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.9%, reflecting expectations of stronger oil sector activity as phased production increases between May 2025 and September 2026 offset downward pressure on global oil prices.
The UAE’s non-oil GDP is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, supported by gains in tourism, construction, transportation, and financial services. The momentum is forecast to continue into 2027, with GDP growth steady at 4.9%.
The latest revision follows 2024 data showing real GDP growth of 3.7% for the first nine months, underpinned by a 4.5% expansion in the non-oil economy. The World Bank attributed the outlook upgrades to continued reforms aimed at improving the business climate, investment in infrastructure, and steps to enhance regulatory governance. However, it warned that sectors such as logistics remain exposed to trade disruptions.
The report comes as the World Bank has cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from January. The revision reflects increasing trade restrictions and uncertainty across major economies. Growth forecasts were lowered for nearly 70% of the world’s economies, including the US, China, and Europe, although the Bank ruled out a global recession.
For the Gulf Cooperation Council, GDP is expected to grow 3.2% in 2025, rising to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, supported by the end of OPEC+ cuts and continued expansion in non-oil sectors.
