The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has revised its GDP growth forecast for the UAE in 2024 to 5.7%, up from the previous projection of 4.3%. For the current year, 2023, the overall GDP is expected to grow by 3.1%.
The report indicates a predicted non-oil GDP growth of 5.9% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024 while estimating oil GDP growth at 8.1% in 2024. In the second quarter of this year, the UAE recorded a 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) growth, down from 8% in the same period last year, remaining consistent with the first quarter’s figures.
Non-oil GDP growth increased to 7.3% YoY in the second quarter of 2023, up from 4.5% YoY in the previous quarter and 6.4% YoY compared to the same period last year. The report highlights expansions in financial services, insurance, construction, wholesale, and retail trade, contributing to the adjusted growth rates for 2023 and 2024.
During the first half of 2023, the unified financial surplus stood at Dh47.4 billion, equivalent to 5.2% of the GDP, compared to a 13.4% surplus in the same period in 2022. Government revenues totalled Dh246.9 billion (26.4% of GDP annually), while total expenditures amounted to Dh199.5 billion (21.3% of GDP annually).
The report emphasized the strength of the non-oil private sector, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reaching 57.7 in October, its highest level since June 2019. This surge was driven by increased business activity and new orders, particularly in new export orders, at the fastest pace in over four years.
Dubai’s PMI also rose to 57.4 in October, the highest level since August 2022, mainly due to a substantial increase in new orders, fostering business confidence at its highest level in over three years.
Private-sector employment expanded rapidly, with a 5.5% increase in employees compared to the previous year and an 8.2% annual rise in total wages in the private sector. The PMI survey pointed to increased employment to meet the surge in new orders at the end of the third quarter and into October.
