UBS has raised its gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, up $300 from its previous estimate, and expects it to reach $3,900 by mid-2026. The bank cites anticipated easing by the Federal Reserve, weakness in the US dollar, and geopolitical risks as key drivers.
UBS also revised its outlook for gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings. It now expects ETF holdings to exceed 3,900 metric tons by end-2025, close to the prior record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020.
Central bank purchases are projected at 900-950 tons in 2025, slightly below last year’s total. UBS identifies the main risk to its view as inflation surprises forcing the Fed to raise rates.
Other banks are also raising forecasts. Commerzbank forecasts a year-end 2026 gold price of $3,800 per troy ounce, up from its earlier $3,600 projection, citing similar macroeconomic and monetary policy pressures.
